I could begin this piece with a very long and drawn out recap of where we started a few months ago and where we stand right now in this heated Oscar race but let’s cut the shit: Argo is going to win Best Picture. The comment section is below; feel free to yell at me. I love caps and dislike exclamation marks.
I wasn’t so sure about it before the Globes, but after Argo’s big win there, and now with it’s SAG win, I’m 100% sure (or, to quote Zero Dark Thirty, “99% because I know certainty freaks you guys the fuck out”). For most of you, the win at the Globes didn’t mean shit because, well, it’s the Golden Globes. A SAG win though? As confident as I am in my opinion, it was a “shock” to me as well. I mean, it’s the Screen Actors Guild and it won for Best Ensemble Cast. If we’re going by the definition of the category, it should’ve gone to Les Miserables, but more and more the SAGs playout like regular categories and what’s expected or popular usually wins. Now, everything can change in a few week’s and I’m not ruling out Lincoln right now because it’s the safest choice out of the bunch, and Silver Linings is doing too well at the box office to ignore…but, you guys, Argo’s got this one locked up.
For many of us, Argo is not the best movie of last year. I loved it and it made my Top 10 list but it’s far from what I’d consider the best of the year. But that’s doesn’t matter because it has 3 things going for it that has me so confident in my decision:
The Sympathy Vote: Ben Affleck is running a great campaign right now that is going unnoticed. His speech at the Critic’s Choice Awards was poignant and funny and he gave a nice jab at the Academy without polarizing them. He gave two, somewhat emotional and earnest speeches at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. But it has less to do with what he’s doing and more with what he isn’t. He’s yet to really address his “snub”, he’s letting the early wins speak for him and the film, and he has the voter’s sympathy. “Oh Poor Ben. He didn’t win Best Director! That silly Academy! Well, I’m going to vote for him anyways by voting for Argo!” This is pretty much the mindset of most of the voters right now. Much like Sandra Bullock, he’s very popular amongst his peers, has many friends in the industry and while he or the film may not deserve it, that doesn’t matter. Also: the headlines this will make the next day! This win benefits everyone.
The General Public’s Vote: My mom saw Argo. My mom goes to the movies about twice a year and Argo got her out to the theatre. Too often do I hear people complain about having not seen the Best Picture winner/nominees. A lot of people saw Argo, my brother saw it, I saw it, and my parents saw it. The general audience wants to be rewarded for actually having seen the Best Picture winner. Because, um, does anyone even remember The Artist?
The Academy’s Vote: While their exclusion of Ben Affleck for Best Director may cancel out my entire argument for some of you, I think it only helps. Obviously this is not what the Academy had planned. Originally, it seemed like a fight between Silver Linings and Lincoln. And while both Lincoln and SIlver Linings Playbook are both critically and commercially successful, no one can beat a comeback story. Add in everything else I’ve said so far, and you’ve got a winning combination. Again: this win benefits everyone.
Argo, it’s yours to lose.